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2018 Country Focus: Spain

  |   Networks News

Spain has a new leader but many analysts believe he will not stay in power until the end of his mandate, potentially raising further uncertainty for the market.

Pedro Sanchez, the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) became prime minister on the 2nd of June. This, after he received support from anti-austerity and nationalist parties to oust the former leader Mariano Rajoy, over a corruption scandal.
The Canadian credit rating agency DBRS also stated recently that it “expects PSOE to lead a transitional government, with limited ability to steer policies in a different direction in the short term, and to eventually call for early general elections in the coming months as it faces difficultly in legislating.”
One of the main stumbling blocks is the lack of parliamentary majority. Sanchez’s party has only 84 of 350 seats. The vote of no-confidence on Rajoy received the support of 180 lawmakers, thanks to several fringe parties, but soon after, the now opposition party Partido Popular threatened to use its majority in the Senate to block a vote on the country’s budget later this year.

 

Macro-economical environment

Main Indicators

Top Commercial Activities

GDP Growth

  • 2016 – 3,3%
  • 2017 – 3,1%
  • 2018 – 2,7%- forecast

Population: 46,0 millions
Unemployment Rate: 16,0 %

  1. Engineering & Tourism
  2. Food Industry
  3. Automotive
  4. Renewable Energy

 

 

Strengths

  • Improving competitiveness thanks to deep structural reforms
  • Modern infrastructure network
  • Employment creation (0,6m in 2017)
  • High decrease of private debt

Weaknesses

  • Insufficient innovation and middle range products
  • Low level employment of youth and seniors
  • High public debt (98,3% of the GDP)
  • Uncertain political environment

Trade structure

Top 5 countries of exports

  • France (16%)
  • Germany (12%)
  • Italy (8%)
  • Portugal (7%)
  • United Kingdom (7%)

Top 5 countries of imports

  • Germany (14%)
  • France (12%)
  • China (7%)
  • Italy (7%)
  • The Netherlands (5%)

What's new at Jori Armangol?

Restructuration has been performed to gain into efficiency, this reorganization is still ongoing. Xavier Barragán was appointed as CFO of Jori Armangol on September 3rd 2018. Our Investment in Trade Credit solution is strong, a dedicated tool is going to be implemented to increase accuracy of Account Management.

Trade Credit Insurance

Credit Insurance Market

  • Extremely competitive
  • Decrease of premium rates following low amounts of losses in the last years

Available products

  • Ground-up
  • Medium-Term
  • Excess of loss

Insolvencies

  • Number and increase of insolvencies: 4 095 (-4,7% vs. 2016)

Main Credit Insurance Players and ranking

  • 35% Catalana Occidente Group (Atradius)

  • 20% Cesce

  • 15% Euler Hermes

  • 15% Coface

The credit insurance market represents 570mEUR in 2017 -3, 9% vs. 2016), declining for the ninth consecutive year. Despite this, the favorable environment and low reported overdue amounts led to successfully restrained loss ratio figure. The increased in insurable sales didn’t enable to compensate the reduction in premium rate in such soft market context.

Main Bonding Players and ranking

  • 22% MIC Insurance

  • 15% Asefa

  • 12% Credito Y Caucion

  • 51% Other

The bonding market represents 61mEUR in 2017, a reduction of 2, 6% vs. 2016 despite the increase of public tenders (+39% vs. 2016) and the positive signs of recovery from the real estate sector.

All the written material is the property of Jori Armangol.